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Better to roll singles than 10-shots?

cabbagecabbage Posts: 2,191Member Legendary Striker
Just thinking out loud here: I was considering how we now have the Guaranteed label and Strike Shot voice effects when we roll the hatcher and from a certain point of view, it could be better to roll singles than ten-shots. What I realized was that when you roll a ten-shot and get the guaranteed effect, you are guaranteed one 5-star (you may get more but for the sake of this argument we'll just focus on the one 5-star). But if you rolled 10 single shots and got two or more guaranteed effects, you would be getting more guaranteed 5-star monsters for the same orbs.

For the record, I like both ways and don't prefer one over the other (although getting the magic stones with the 10-shot is nice) but I'd be interested to hear what others have to say.
Max lucks... I want all the max lucks.

YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp3f5nlYq8wOaCRbvuXasYA
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Comments

  • ManouseManouse Posts: 21Member Up-and-coming Striker
    I may be wrong but I always thought the strike voice and 'guaranteed' text is just extra window dressing and doesn't really affect the 5* drop rates.
  • cabbagecabbage Posts: 2,191Member Legendary Striker
    When you get one of those effects, it guarantees a 5-star. If it's a ten-shot, one of the monsters you pull will be a 5-star; if it's a single then of course that single will be a 5-star.
    Max lucks... I want all the max lucks.

    YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp3f5nlYq8wOaCRbvuXasYA
  • WhyFixWhatAintBrokeWhyFixWhatAintBroke Posts: 415Member Elite Striker
    To elaborate on the effects, in a future update, the voice-over/text-over will mean that you are guaranteed one of the featured monsters (though right now it just means any 5-star, I think... unless it was already changed).
  • SFGundamSFGundam Posts: 833Moderator Community Moderator
    Manouse said:

    I may be wrong but I always thought the strike voice and 'guaranteed' text is just extra window dressing and doesn't really affect the 5* drop rates.

    You aren't wrong.
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  • TrixGamingTrixGaming Posts: 36Member Up-and-coming Striker
    Manouse said:

    I may be wrong but I always thought the strike voice and 'guaranteed' text is just extra window dressing and doesn't really affect the 5* drop rates.

    Absolutely agree on that.
  • ThorkleThorkle Posts: 5Member Novice Striker
    I have wondered this myself. I seem to get better rolls on single pulls after terrible ten shots, but that may just be luck. I am tempted to just do singles for a while and say see ya to the free gems. Last legends I had zero 5 stars in a ten shot, and then I rolled back to back strikers in single pulls.
  • AmadanAmadan Posts: 509Member Elite Striker
    Hatcher pulls must be predetermined, by necessity - otherwise you open the door for desyncing the client and server, "losing" rolls, etc., and all that bad stuff. So the very moment that you do a pull, the results are all immediately determined before anything else happens, then the hatcher animation comes up, eggs come down and hatch, etc. all afterwards, but that's all just for show since it's already been done and applied to your account beforehand.

    This means that the "Guaranteed" effect is just a teaser that at least one of the already-done eggs was a 5*, and it's hyping you up for the reveal. I mean, I don't know the code so it's possible that there's something more going on...but I'm absolutely confident that that's how it works unless a dev says otherwise.

    So 10-shot remain superior simply because they give you gems, and single pulls don't.
  • ThorkleThorkle Posts: 5Member Novice Striker
    That was my speculation, but rngesus is a strange deity, and I can get superstitious sometimes lol.
  • FlyingClutchmanFlyingClutchman Posts: 254Member Elite Striker
    As @Amadan said, the randomization almost certainly occurs as soon as you enter the hatcher. However, I don't necessarily believe that the guaranteed hatcher effect is just a random spoiler of the results. If it is just that, it's very misleading, but they could do a random check to determine if you get a guaranteed 5-star and then random 1 5-star and 9 4/5-stars. I also wasn't aware that solo pulls had the chance to appear as guaranteed.

    I checked the 8.0 update notes and I couldn't find anything. If anyone has a link to an official source, I'd be interested to see it.
  • cabbagecabbage Posts: 2,191Member Legendary Striker
    @FlyingClutchman Couple days ago got a guaranteed sign on a single pull and got Amakusa Shiro. Doesn't prove that the effect now guarantees a featured/limited monster, but it does show that single pulls can get the effect.
    Max lucks... I want all the max lucks.

    YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp3f5nlYq8wOaCRbvuXasYA
  • MAXPOWERMAXPOWER Posts: 130Member Your Local Striker
    Amadan said:

    Hatcher pulls must be predetermined, by necessity - otherwise you open the door for desyncing the client and server, "losing" rolls, etc., and all that bad stuff. So the very moment that you do a pull, the results are all immediately determined before anything else happens, then the hatcher animation comes up, eggs come down and hatch, etc. all afterwards, but that's all just for show since it's already been done and applied to your account beforehand.

    This means that the "Guaranteed" effect is just a teaser that at least one of the already-done eggs was a 5*, and it's hyping you up for the reveal. I mean, I don't know the code so it's possible that there's something more going on...but I'm absolutely confident that that's how it works unless a dev says otherwise.

    So 10-shot remain superior simply because they give you gems, and single pulls don't.

    You are right.
    The progress should be like this:
    1.when you click the "hatch", a message pop up, the client sends the order to server.
    2.server pick its choices, and send the result and data of new monsters back to client.
    3.After client receive the result, the communication between client and server is finished. The message disappears.
    After that, no more communication between client and server, so everything below can run without network. If the app crash now, you can see 10 new monsters are already in your box.

    If the result contains 5 star, client will decide( I'm not sure it's client or server decide, but I prefer client, for relieving the burden of server.) which animation to play. And then you see the orb on the screen and the hatcher animation start.
  • PortorPortor Posts: 5Member Novice Striker
    So after reading through this I decided to YOLO a single roll with my last 5 orbs into Guardians. I got a "guaranteed" message and then rolled Chronos, who is not featured. So, take from that what you will. Seems to confirm that it is possible for single and it is not necessarily a featured monster.

    To Cabbage's point, at this point I don't think we can dismiss the possibility that the chance of a "Guaranteed" message is separate from the 5 star rate and could possibly raise the chance of 5 stars when doing 10 single shots versus one 10 shot. Does JP have any crowdsourced data on this?

    PS: Hooray for a 5 star... but eh for Chronos, lol
  • AmadanAmadan Posts: 509Member Elite Striker
    Portor said:

    To Cabbage's point, at this point I don't think we can dismiss the possibility that the chance of a "Guaranteed" message is separate from the 5 star rate and could possibly raise the chance of 5 stars when doing 10 single shots versus one 10 shot. Does JP have any crowdsourced data on this?

    I hate to tell you but you have that exactly backwards - first you gather data, and if a sufficiently-large data set seems to support your idea then at that point you can't dismiss the possibility of your idea being correct. At this point, all you have is an idea which runs counter to basic design with nothing to back it up, so it's entirely dismissable. ;p So I'm sticking to it: the "Guaranteed" message &c. is just window dressing, and/or a deliberate psychological quirk to make the pull feel more rewarding or special (which makes you more likely to want to do it again).
  • Mr.FMr.F Posts: 2,063Member Legendary Striker
    Portor said:

    So after reading through this I decided to YOLO a single roll with my last 5 orbs into Guardians. I got a "guaranteed" message and then rolled Chronos, who is not featured.

    Except Heroes/Guardians/Legends have no featured monsters.

    They throw exclusives (Uriel, Alice, Kamui, Robin, Agnamut, Agnamut X, Apollo X, Oda X, Lancelot X, Harley X) into the pool.
    "This was brought to you by FRUNGY, the Sport of Kings!"
  • WhyFixWhatAintBrokeWhyFixWhatAintBroke Posts: 415Member Elite Striker
    @Mr.F , I believe that in JP, the exclusives in Legends and Guardians basically do count as 'featured' monsters when it comes to the 'Guaranteed' message or 'Strike Shot' voice-over. So what Portor said isn't wrong in context to this discussion.
  • FlyingClutchmanFlyingClutchman Posts: 254Member Elite Striker
    We can't dismiss any idea. I could argue for or against any idea mentioned and there would be no definitive proof that I'm wrong. You could even show me data that suggests hatch rates for 5-stars haven't changed since the update and I could just say that the base hatch rates could have been adjusted to keep the overall rates consistent with what they were before the update. Not only that, as a software engineer, I could write code that demonstrates every possibility that has been discussed. :wink:

    What I'm trying to say is this: It's all speculation. Speculate however you'd like.

    As a parting gift/monkey wrench: What if the guaranteed effect was always on the server and they simply decided to send the result of that roll back with the monster IDs to be displayed to the user? :tongue:
  • Mr.FMr.F Posts: 2,063Member Legendary Striker

    I believe that in JP, the exclusives in Legends and Guardians basically do count as 'featured' monsters when it comes to the 'Guaranteed' message or 'Strike Shot' voice-over. So what Portor said isn't wrong in context to this discussion.

    Huh. I wonder why that is? (And isn't in Global.)

    We can't dismiss any idea. I could argue for or against any idea mentioned and there would be no definitive proof... It's all speculation. Speculate however you'd like.

    True. Even if the algorithm was shown, there is still the chance for RNGesus to say 'Nope! Not this week.' I sometimes feel like the "guaranteed" effect was sometimes a "pity 5-star" -- after so many failures in so many days, the server weighs in and throws the user a bone. (As my main continues to dead-shot in Heroes/Guardians...)
    "This was brought to you by FRUNGY, the Sport of Kings!"
  • TIPSPTIPSP Posts: 156Member Battle-Hardened Striker
    As mentioned earlier, you don't get gems from solo Hatches. My opinion is Gems = olive money. Olive money = olive units. Olive units = love! The rng controls the outcome. Enjoy your 5gems.
  • AmadanAmadan Posts: 509Member Elite Striker

    We can't dismiss any idea. I could argue for or against any idea mentioned and there would be no definitive proof that I'm wrong.

    Well sure, and by that token I could claim that drop rates are higher on Tuesdays but only if you stand on one foot and stick your tongue out when you pull the hatcher, and that would be just as unproductive as any other baseless speculation with no supporting evidence. ;p

    A question was asked - "is it better to pull single pulls instead of 10-shots because of the Guaranteed text?" - and the answer that has come up is "no, the Guaranteed text is meaningless window dressing". Claiming otherwise can lead to people doing 10 single-pulls and losing out on the gems they would have gotten from a 10-pull, so it's bad advice and shouldn't be promulgated unless there is convincing evidence to support it. Additional layers of unsupported speculation don't make that better. ;p
  • FlyingClutchmanFlyingClutchman Posts: 254Member Elite Striker
    Well, no, you couldn't because we can say for certain that many elements of that scenario are not true. In contrast, the thought that the guarantee message could be independent of regular hatcher rates is not baseless.

    Two things can be true simultaneously. 10 shots can be better and the guarantee can be separate from the regular hatcher rates. We have no evidence that the chance of a guarantee is consistent between solo pulls and 10 shots. We also don't have any evidence that multiple monsters in a 10 shot can't be guaranteed. We have assumed only one can be, but that's a baseless assumption as well.

    The only honest answer here is that no one knows. I would disagree just as strongly with someone on the other side of this debate as well.

    Bottom line, if you want the gems, pull 10 shots. If not, do whatever you want. There are no guarantees (pun intended).
  • WhyFixWhatAintBrokeWhyFixWhatAintBroke Posts: 415Member Elite Striker
    edited March 16
    @Amadan , I totally get what you're saying, but you're dismissing the fact that we have no clue whether or not the special effects are, in fact, just window dressing. For all we know, as the server processes our rolls, the guaranteed hatches might have their own percentage chance of appearing that are different to just a regular 5 star. For instance, every roll could be processed with say an 8% chance for a 5 star, 91% chance for a 4 star, and a 1% chance for a guaranteed-effect 5 star. Now, if this is true (which I'm not saying it is or isn't), then it still only matters in 10-shots vs single rolls if 10-shots are processed with a 1% chance of the guaranteed for the entire roll rather than per egg hatched. I personally kind of feel like it's just window dressing (that definitely adds some excitement imo), but I'm just saying we honestly have no clue how it's programmed, so I think it's unfair for you to say with any certainty that there is no way there is a difference.

    Personally I love my gems though, so, I'll always be pulling 10-shots if I can. :smile:

    P.S. Also, sure, as you said, it might be 'bad' advice to tell new players to pull solo hatches and miss out on gems, but that isn't what anyone's said. We're simply here to discuss the possibilities.

    P.P.S. Oh, I basically repeated what FlyingClutchman said. :tongue:
  • cabbagecabbage Posts: 2,191Member Legendary Striker
    Interesting stuff here but I guess we haven't decided on anything, ha. The way JP players react to seeing the guaranteed effects, however, makes me think they think they are beating/changing the odds by getting the effect. They could all be wrong or acting, of course.

    Anyway, at this point I'm pulling just one-time guaranteed 10-shots for a new series or singles in Legends/Guardians, and I'll keep an eye on my percentages.
    Max lucks... I want all the max lucks.

    YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp3f5nlYq8wOaCRbvuXasYA
  • ShadoAnnaruShadoAnnaru Posts: 153Member Your Local Striker
    edited March 17

    P.S. Also, sure, as you said, it might be 'bad' advice to tell new players to pull solo hatches and miss out on gems, but that isn't what anyone's said. We're simply here to discuss the possibilities.

    @WhyFixWhatAintBroke Amadan is just clarifying that "no one knows" part because even if those of us in here before his comment understood that we were just speculating, a newcomer could come by and take all this without questioning or thinking much and cause them to miss out on gems. No one said this but it's being implied, or at least sounds like it is.
    ShadoAnnaru
  • WhyFixWhatAintBrokeWhyFixWhatAintBroke Posts: 415Member Elite Striker
    @ShadoAnnaru, I suppose you're right. Cabbage's initial post has the potential to be misunderstood, so it actually is a good thing for us to clear that up!
  • angolmoaangolmoa Posts: 211Member Your Local Striker
    edited March 20
    Here is a way to prove the hatching special effects are just window dressing:

    when you try to hatch, doesnt matter single or 10shots, when you press the hatch button, wait for it to finish loading ( or dont), IMMEDIATELY close the game which is before it even do the shooting orb to the dragon's eye animation, then reopen the game, now go to your monster box and check, YOU ALREADY HAVE THE NEW MONSTERS!!
    This proves that when you press the Hatch button, the game already decided what you get from the hatching, everything after that are just for fun. If whatever you gonna get from the hatch is determined by the special effects, then when you close the game before enter the hatching animation and reopen the game should not give you any new monster in your monster box.
  • WhyFixWhatAintBrokeWhyFixWhatAintBroke Posts: 415Member Elite Striker
    @angolmoa, you are misunderstanding what we are saying. We already know that hatches are determined the moment you press the hatch button; however, you don't ALWAYS see the 'guaranteed' effects every time you get a 5 star monster. So, how do you know that 'guaranteed' effect hatches are not different entirely from a regular hatch that happens to include 5 star monsters? As I said before, 91% of monsters might be 4 stars, and 8% are 5 stars, and 1% are 5 stars that include the guaranteed effects. Now, that might not make the most sense, but it's definitely possible.

    As I've said before, I also think that the effects are just window dressing, but all these people saying they are CERTAIN just make me feel the need to point out that we don't know anything for certain, lmao.
  • FlyingClutchmanFlyingClutchman Posts: 254Member Elite Striker
    @angolmoa If the server sends the client 10 monster IDs and nothing else, then yes, you are probably right. However, if the server sends back 10 monster IDs and a boolean (true/false), with the boolean being whether or not one or more of the hatches was a guaranteed 5-star, then you are likely incorrect. In both cases, the game client has received all of the monster data instantly and can be shut off without any loss of data.
  • angolmoaangolmoa Posts: 211Member Your Local Striker
    @FlyingClutchman thats why I have the "wait for it to finish loading" in my words, (or don't) cuz I am not sure.
  • HastedHasted Posts: 35Member Up-and-coming Striker
    I still see a lot of speculation on when the rolls are determined so lets clear that up now; The moment you hit the button to hatch, your orbs are consumed and the monster is in your monster box. Everything else that goes on after you hitting that button is completely superficial. The guaranteed 5* is indeed "window dressing" in the sense that it was already determined that the roll is 5* before that was even a factor.

    The real point of speculation is whether or not there's actually a guarantee on your pulls at some point. There is truly no way to determine this without some additional information from the developers. However we can rationalize the system in an attempt to better understand it. The developers either employ a free system in which the RNG is pure RNG, where there is no roll modification what so ever, or a modified roll system in which your chances of receiving a 5* are modified. Strong arguments can be made for both systems, however I personally think a modified system is more likely. It is a common tactic in games like this to utilize a modified system as to ensure that the player is rewarded within a reasonable amount of time, which generally translates to players playing longer.

    A modified RNG system can be implemented in a number of different ways, but the most basic of these is an incremental system, where with every losing roll, 4* in this case, your chances of a winning roll increase. I believe this is also the most likely system to be implemented, as the developers shouldn't have much stake in the matter past making sure that players continually want to spend orbs; the sheer probability of getting a particular unit should take care of balancing out the effective value of the rolls.

    From here the last consideration to make is when the increased rate is applied and reset. I could write a more extensive explanation of all of the possible ways this could play out, but for now I'll stick with the scenario I find to be the most likely. I would assume that the rates are applied on a per monster basis, and reset upon receiving a 5*. Single pulls are inherently single, and 10-shots are effectively 10 individual single pulls. In this scenario the base chance of pulling a 5* is added to your current modifier, and then the roll is performed based on that chance. After the monster is rolled the modifier is either increased in the case of a 4* pull, or reset in the case of a 5*.

    There are certainly more variables here to consider, but we don't have enough information to properly speculate beyond this point. Different hatchers obviously have different rates, and additionally 10-shots sometimes have increased rates as well. As to how this roll modifier factors into the different environments is anyone's guess.


    TLDR:

    So ultimately we come back to the question of whether or not its better to solo pull or 10 shot. Based on how I believe the system works there is no real difference between doing solo pulls and doing 10-shots. The only thing that should change between the two is whether or not you receive the bonus for doing a 10-shot.
    Main: 800 536 323 248
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  • AmadanAmadan Posts: 509Member Elite Striker
    Occam's Razor says we should prefer the simpler hypothesis; "it doesn't do anything" is simpler than "it does these things, in this way, when this happens", so logically we should assume it doesn't do anything unless new information comes to light.

    If you're going to try and gather statistical data to prove whether or not it does something, then your null hypothesis is "it doesn't do anything", and you must assume that is true until such time as you can actively disprove it.

    Logic and math are united on this one: Assume it doesn't do anything until proven otherwise.
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